Bay of Bengal low may become a cyclonic storm by 16 November; north Andhra rain from 17th

The Bay of Bengal low that formed on Friday morning is forecast to grow into a cyclonic storm. In its national bulletin of 8.58 pm on Friday, 13 November, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the system should become a well-marked low on Saturday and a depression around the morning of Sunday, 15 November. By the evening of Monday, 16 November, it expects a cyclonic storm in the central Bay.

Update, Saturday, 14 November, 8.33 am IST: By 5.30 am, the low had strengthened into a well-marked low over the southeast Bay of Bengal, IMD said, and it is very likely to become a depression within the next 24 hours. IMD still expects a cyclonic storm over the central Bay around the evening of 16 November and has not said where it may cross the coast. Isolated heavy rain is forecast for coastal Andhra on 18 and 19 November, and the outlook, which now runs to 20 November, shows the same for that day. IMD advised fishermen at sea to return to the coast by 15 November.

Thursday’s outlook had stopped at a depression. The low took shape over the southeast Bay at 5.30 am on Friday. IMD sees it moving northwest, and north-northwest once it becomes a depression.

IMD has not named a landfall point. Its tropical weather outlook, issued late on Friday morning, rated the chance of a depression as moderate within 24-48 hours of 8.30 am that day and high within 48-72 hours. Most models, it said, point towards the north Andhra Pradesh coast but differ widely on the later track, strength and landfall.

Rain due in north Andhra from 17 November

The Meteorological Centre at Amaravati expects no rain in the state until 8.30 am on Tuesday, 17 November. Its 8 pm forecast on Friday shows dry weather over coastal Andhra, Yanam and Rayalaseema until then. IMD’s national table, however, shows isolated rain from 14 November.

The first showers are due on Tuesday in Srikakulam, Parvathipuram Manyam, Vizianagaram, Visakhapatnam, Alluri Sitharama Raju and Anakapalli. On Wednesday, 18 November, rain is likely to spread down the coast, and all of them except Anakapalli are under a yellow warning for isolated heavy rain and 40-50 kmph gusts. On Thursday the warning extends to Anakapalli, Kakinada, East Godavari, Konaseema, Eluru, West Godavari and Yanam.

Districts from NTR to Nellore could see 30-50 kmph gusts on both days. Rayalaseema has no warning, only a chance of a stray shower on 18 and 19 November.

Fishermen called back, Telangana dry

IMD has told fishermen at sea to return by Sunday and to keep out of the southwest Bay from 15 to 18 November and the central Bay from 16 to 19 November. Gales of 65-75 kmph, gusting up to 80, are forecast over the central Bay from Tuesday. Off Andhra, the Amaravati centre expects squally winds of 45-55 kmph, gusting up to 65, on Tuesday and has asked boats to stay in.

Telangana is expected to stay dry. The Hyderabad centre’s 8.30 pm bulletin shows no rain or warning in the state until the morning of 20 November, and nights 2-3°C cooler than normal until 15 November. Hyderabad is forecast to stay near 32°C by day and 16-17°C at night, with morning mist.