Orange alert for four north Andhra districts on 19 November as Bay low deepens

The Meteorological Centre at Amaravati has put Srikakulam, Vizianagaram, Visakhapatnam and Anakapalli under an orange alert for Thursday, 19 November, warning of heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places. Its district table, issued on Saturday afternoon, lifts all four from the yellow level they carried in Friday’s forecast.

The alert runs for 24 hours from 8.30 am on Thursday, and the four districts face winds of 40-50 kmph, gusting to 60, from Wednesday to Friday. Parvathipuram Manyam, Alluri Sitharama Raju, Kakinada, East Godavari, Konaseema, Eluru, West Godavari and Yanam stay at yellow for heavy rain that day.

No district has a warning before 8.30 am on Wednesday, 18 November, when heavy rain becomes likely in Srikakulam, Parvathipuram Manyam, Vizianagaram and Alluri Sitharama Raju. On Friday, 20 November, heavy rain is forecast for all six north Andhra districts, Kakinada and Yanam. The eight Rayalaseema districts have no warning in any of the seven days covered.

Forecast track points to a severe cyclonic storm

A tropical weather outlook IMD issued at 1.30 pm on Saturday sets out the path it expects for the well-marked low over the Bay: a depression by 5.30 am on Sunday, 15 November, a deep depression a day later and a cyclonic storm by 5.30 pm on Monday, 16 November. By 5.30 am on Wednesday it could reach severe cyclonic storm strength, packing winds of 75-85 kmph that gust to 95.

Most models steer it north-northwest towards the north Andhra coast, the outlook says, but differ widely on its later path, strength and landfall. IMD’s GFS model is the outlier and points to Myanmar. IMD has not named a landfall point.

Its national evening bulletin, issued at 4.33 pm, forecasts very heavy rain in parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on 19 November, heavy rain on 18 and 20 November, and thundersqualls of 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 on Thursday.

Boats called in, Telangana rain from 19 November

The Amaravati centre’s 1.30 pm fishermen warning asks boats at sea to return by Sunday. Squally winds along and off the coast are forecast to reach 55-65 kmph, gusting to 75, on 17 and 18 November.

Telangana, dry in Friday’s forecasts, is now due isolated spells of light to moderate showers and thundershowers from the morning of 19 November to the morning of 21 November, the Hyderabad centre said in its 5.30 pm bulletin on Saturday. It has issued no warning for the state.