Bay of Bengal low becomes a depression: what Andhra faces day by day to 20 November

The well-marked low over the south-east Bay of Bengal “intensified into a Depression”, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its national bulletin issued at 9.02 am on Sunday, 15 November. At 5.30 am it lay about 1,040 km south-south-east of Visakhapatnam. On land, the system spares Andhra Pradesh for three days: no district carries a warning until 8.30 am on Wednesday, 18 November.

IMD expects it to keep moving north-north-west, strengthening into a cyclonic storm on Monday, 16 November, in the central parts of the south Bay and the adjoining west-central Bay, and reaching severe cyclonic storm strength over the west-central Bay on Tuesday, 17 November. No landfall point has been named.

Day by day: quiet till Tuesday, heaviest on Thursday

Sunday and Monday, 15 and 16 November: no warnings on land and, at most, light rain in one or two places in Bapatla, Prakasam, Nellore, Tirupati and Chittoor. Boats still out were told to return by Sunday, and squally winds of 40-50 kmph, with gusts of 60, are forecast offshore from Monday.

Tuesday, 17 November: still no district warning. Winds along and off the coast rise to 55-65 kmph, with gusts of 75, and hold through Wednesday; the south-west Bay gets gales of 60-70 kmph.

Wednesday, 18 November: every coastal district from Srikakulam to Nellore, and Yanam, goes on yellow alert, for heavy rain in Srikakulam, Parvathipuram Manyam, Vizianagaram and Alluri Sitharama Raju and for gusty winds elsewhere.

Thursday, 19 November: Srikakulam, Vizianagaram, Visakhapatnam and Anakapalli are on orange alert for heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places. Parvathipuram Manyam, Alluri Sitharama Raju, Kakinada, East Godavari, Konaseema, Eluru, West Godavari and Yanam are on yellow for heavy rain, and IMD’s national bulletin adds thundersqualls of 50-60 kmph, with gusts of 70, over coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Friday, 20 November: heavy rain stays likely in the six north Andhra districts, Kakinada and Yanam. Rayalaseema’s eight districts have no warning on any day. The Meteorological Centre in Hyderabad said on Saturday evening that Telangana stays dry until the morning of 19 November, then sees isolated light to moderate showers for two days, with no warning.

What IMD expects on the ground

For the heavy-rain days, IMD lists snapped branches, minor damage to huts and kutcha houses, flooded low-lying areas and disrupted road and rail traffic. It advises people: “Do not take shelter under trees, as there could be lightning.” IMD has told fishermen to stay off the Andhra coast from 16 to 18 November, the south-west Bay until 18 November and the central Bay until 19 November.