Bay of Bengal low forms on 13 November; showers in 16 Andhra districts, Telangana dry

A low-pressure area formed over the southeast Bay of Bengal at 5.30 am on Friday, 13 November, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its national bulletin issued at 8.29 am that day. The Meteorological Centre at Amaravati expects isolated rain in 16 of Andhra Pradesh’s districts between 8.30 am on Friday, 13 November, and 8.30 am on Saturday.

IMD expects the low to move northwest and become a well-marked low around 14 November and a depression around 15 November over the same waters. Its 8.34 pm bulletin of Thursday, 12 November, had forecast the low for around 13 November, from an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the central Andaman Sea.

What has moved is the rain. IMD’s district outlook of Wednesday had light showers only in Nellore, Tirupati and Chittoor, and only from 15 November. Thursday’s 1.30 pm district forecast brings them forward by two days and across both regions.

District by district, 13 to 19 November

Friday into Saturday morning: isolated light to moderate rain in Sri Potti Sriramulu Nellore, Tirupati and Chittoor. Isolated light rain in Visakhapatnam, East Godavari, Konaseema, West Godavari, NTR, Krishna, Palnadu, Guntur, Bapatla and Prakasam, and in Anantapuramu, Sri Sathya Sai and YSR Kadapa in Rayalaseema.

Saturday into Sunday morning: light rain lingers in Nellore, Tirupati and Chittoor and reaches the hill districts of Parvathipuram Manyam and Alluri Sitharama Raju.

From Sunday, 15 November, to Wednesday morning every district is dry; the two hill districts may get light rain again on 18-19 November. Srikakulam, Vizianagaram, Anakapalli, Kakinada, Eluru, Yanam, Kurnool, Nandyal and Annamayya stay dry throughout. No district carries a weather warning. IMD’s national subdivision table, issued later on Thursday, shows coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema dry on 13 November and isolated rain from 14 November, a day later than the district forecast.

Fishermen and Telangana

The Amaravati centre’s fishermen’s bulletin of 12 November carries no warning for the Andhra Pradesh coast up to 16 November. IMD’s bulletin of 13 November expects squalls of 40-50 kmph, gusting to 60 kmph, over the Andaman Sea on 13 and 14 November and over the southeast Bay from 13 to 16 November. They are likely to strengthen to 45-55 kmph, gusting to 65 kmph, over the southwest Bay from 15 to 17 November and over the central Bay on 16 and 17 November. Fishermen have been told to stay out of these waters.

Telangana gets none of it. The Hyderabad centre’s 8.30 pm bulletin shows no rain anywhere in the state before the morning of 19 November. Nights will stay 2-3°C cooler than usual for another two days. On 12 November IMD logged minimums more than 5°C below normal at isolated places in Telangana, coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema. Hyderabad is forecast to stay near 32°C by day and 17°C at night, with mist in the mornings.