Bay of Bengal low may turn into a depression by 15 November; IMD puts Nellore, Tirupati, Chittoor on its rain list, Telangana stays dry

The weather system brewing over the Andaman Sea is now expected to grow into a depression. In its night bulletin of 9.03 pm on Wednesday, 11 November, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said a Bay of Bengal low should take shape over the southeast of the bay around 13 November, become well marked around 14 November and reach depression strength around 15 November, still over the same waters.

That is one step further than the outlook issued a day earlier, which stopped at the well-marked stage. Behind it is an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the south Andaman Sea, now reaching the middle levels of the atmosphere. IMD expects a north-westward drift.

On land, Andhra Pradesh feels little for now. The Meteorological Centre at Amaravati, in its seven-day bulletin of 8 pm on Wednesday, keeps coastal Andhra, Yanam and Rayalaseema dry until the morning of 14 November, then allows for light to moderate showers in isolated spots in both regions up to the morning of 18 November. No weather warning has been issued.

Day by day, district by district

Thursday, 12 November, and Friday, 13 November: dry weather in every Andhra Pradesh district on IMD’s list, in Yanam and across Telangana.

Saturday, 14 November: isolated light to moderate rain possible in both Andhra regions, though the district forecast of 1.30 pm on Wednesday shows every district dry that day. Telangana dry.

Sunday, 15 November, and Monday, 16 November: isolated light rain likely in Sri Potti Sriramulu Nellore, Tirupati and Chittoor districts, continuing into Tuesday, 17 November. The remaining districts, from Srikakulam to Anantapuramu, stay dry. So does Telangana.

Fishermen and the chill in Telangana

The Amaravati centre has no warning for fishermen on the Andhra Pradesh coast up to 15 November. Farther out, squally winds of 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph are forecast over the Andaman Sea from 11 to 14 November and over parts of the southeast Bay on 13 and 14 November. On 15 November the winds pick up to 45-55 kmph, gusting to 65 kmph, over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay. Boats have been told to keep away.

Telangana gets no rain from the system. IMD’s Hyderabad centre sees the state dry until the morning of 18 November, with night temperatures running 2-3°C below normal for two to three days. Hyderabad logged 31.8°C and 16.1°C on Wednesday; the city forecast stays near 32°C and 16°C, with morning mist.

The low is due to form around Friday, 13 November. The Amaravati district forecast now runs to the morning of 18 November.