Bay of Bengal low pressure area likely around 13 November; IMD sees isolated rain in Rayalaseema, Nellore from 14 November, Telangana dry

A low pressure area may take shape over the southeast Bay of Bengal around 13 November. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) rates it “likely to form” in the all-India bulletin issued at 8.32 pm on Tuesday, 10 November. The Bay of Bengal low pressure system is expected to head north-west and intensify to the “well marked” stage within a day.

Andhra Pradesh may feel it from 14 November. IMD’s Amaravati centre, in its seven-day forecast of 8 pm on Tuesday, keeps the coastal districts and Rayalaseema dry until that morning. On 14, 15 and 16 November it expects rain, light to moderate, at isolated places in both regions. The coast carries no weather warning on any day. Rayalaseema has one, for thunderstorms with lightning on 14 November.

Which districts, on which days

The district forecast names four districts for 14 November: Sri Potti Sriramulu Nellore, Kurnool, Tirupati and Chittoor, with thundershowers possible in the last two. For 15 November the list reads Nellore, Sri Sathya Sai, YSR Kadapa, Tirupati and Chittoor. On 16 November light rain is forecast in Srikakulam, Parvathipuram Manyam, Vizianagaram, Visakhapatnam and Alluri Sitharama Raju districts, and again in YSR Kadapa, Tirupati and Chittoor. Every other district, the Godavari and Krishna deltas included, is marked dry throughout.

Rayalaseema has had very little rain this season. IMD’s Kurnool observatory has logged 7.3 mm since 1 October, Nandyal 6.2 mm and Anantapur 15.4 mm, readings up to Tuesday morning show.

Telangana dry, nights cold

Telangana lies outside the rain area. The Hyderabad centre’s bulletin of Tuesday night keeps the whole state dry up to the morning of 17 November and lists no warning. Nights stay cold: Adilabad recorded 13.7°C on Tuesday morning, Hanamkonda and Medak 14°C each and Hyderabad 16.2°C.

At sea, IMD’s cyclone centre in New Delhi expects squally winds of 40 to 50 kmph, gusting to 60 kmph, over the Andaman Sea and the southeast Bay of Bengal on 14 and 15 November, and has asked fishermen to stay out on both days. The national bulletin warns fishermen off the southeast Bay from 13 November. For the Andhra Pradesh coast, the Amaravati centre lists no fishermen warning up to 14 November.

The cyclone centre’s outlook of 11.30 am on Tuesday rates the chance of the low deepening into a depression as nil until the morning of 14 November, then “low”, “moderate” and “high” for the three successive 24-hour periods up to the morning of 17 November. None of the bulletins mentions a cyclonic storm. Two have struck the coast since late October: Arnab, then Murasu, which crossed close to Ongole early on 3 November. IMD’s next extended-range outlook is due on Thursday, 12 November.