Murasu set to cross the Andhra coast between Nellore and Narsapur on 3 November morning, the day municipal votes are counted

Until Saturday the forecast could only say the storm would come close to Andhra Pradesh. On Sunday morning it has a stretch of coast against its name. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects the system in the Bay of Bengal to strengthen into a severe cyclonic storm and cross the south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nellore and Narsapur on the morning of Tuesday, 3 November.

At the time of crossing, the IMD expects sustained winds of 100 to 110 kmph, gusting to 120 kmph. Once it reaches cyclone strength, the system will carry the name Murasu, proposed by India. After Arnab, this would make it the season’s second Bay of Bengal cyclone.

Where the storm is now

The low pressure area that crossed the Andaman Sea concentrated into a depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal on Saturday. By 11.30 pm that night it had moved closer, and lay about 880 km south-southeast of Visakhapatnam, 900 km southeast of Machilipatnam and 950 km east-southeast of Ongole, still heading west-northwest at about 22 kmph. Its winds were then 45 to 55 kmph, gusting to 65.

The IMD’s sequence is a steady build-up: a deep depression by Sunday noon, a cyclonic storm by Sunday midnight, and a severe cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal on Monday, 2 November, before it turns towards the coast. On Sunday morning the satellite picture already showed a tight, bright cloud mass wrapping around a centre east of Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu.

Rain, wind and the sea

Rain will reach the coast before the storm does. The IMD has forecast extremely heavy rain, above about 20 cm in a day, at isolated places in coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on 2 November, and very heavy rain on 3 November. Rayalaseema is likely to get very heavy rain on both days. Telangana is likely to get widespread rain on 2 and 3 November, with heavy falls in places.

Fishermen on the Andhra Pradesh coast have been told not to go to sea from Monday morning, 2 November, until Wednesday afternoon, 4 November. Those already out are being asked to return.

A crowded week for the state

The forecast sets the storm against Andhra Pradesh’s busiest week of local elections. Polling for the municipal corporations and municipalities is under way on Sunday, and the votes are to be counted on 3 November, the same morning the storm is expected to cross the coast. Telugu Scope reported on Saturday when the IMD first said the system would turn into a cyclone.

In an emergency, residents can call 112, or the Andhra Pradesh disaster management helpline on 1070.