Rain may dampen Dasara in coastal Andhra as IMD forecasts heavy showers till October 21

Showers and thunderstorms could spoil part of the Dasara festivities in Andhra Pradesh this week. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast heavy rain at isolated places over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on Vijayadashami (Tuesday, October 20) and again on Wednesday, October 21.

In its five-day warning issued on Monday, October 19, the IMD’s Meteorological Centre in Amaravati said Rayalaseema could also see heavy rain at isolated places on Wednesday, October 21. Thunderstorms with lightning are likely at isolated places in both regions until Thursday, October 22, and in Rayalaseema until Friday, October 23. Strong surface winds of 40–50 km/h, gusting to 60 km/h, were forecast for Monday, October 19, easing to 30–40 km/h from Tuesday, October 20.

The affected districts are under a yellow “watch” level, meaning residents should stay updated rather than take emergency action. “Isolated” in IMD terms means one or two places in a region; heavy rainfall is defined as 64.5 mm to 115.5 mm in 24 hours. The IMD’s national bulletin on Sunday, October 18, had flagged the possibility of isolated extremely heavy falls over coastal Andhra Pradesh, but the Amaravati centre’s state forecast on October 19 does not use that category.

What is driving the rain in coastal Andhra

According to the IMD’s weather inference of October 19, an upper-air cyclonic circulation lies over the southwest Bay of Bengal off the north Tamil Nadu coast, extending up to 5.8 km above mean sea level. A trough runs from it to the northwest Bay of Bengal. Neither is a cyclone or a depression.

The weekend of October 17–18 brought the heaviest falls so far. IMD data for the 24 hours ending 8.30 am on Sunday, October 18, show Atmakur in Nellore district recorded 7 cm, Prathipadu 6 cm, Tenali 5.7 cm and Amalapuram 5.2 cm. Falls were lighter in the 24 hours to the morning of October 19: the IMD’s daily data showed Vepada in Vizianagaram district on top with 43 mm, followed by Paderu (25.6 mm), Chinnamandem in Annamayya district (25.4 mm) and Tadpatri (21 mm).

Festival and campaign trail

The wet spell overlaps with the festival’s busiest days of temple visits, processions and open-air gatherings, and with parties stepping up campaigning for the local body elections. The State Election Commission announced the schedule on October 14, with polling for urban local bodies on October 28 and for mandal and zilla parishad seats on November 3. Evening downpours could cut short rallies and door-to-door rounds.

Staying safe in a thunderstorm

The IMD and the National Disaster Management Authority give standard advice for lightning. Move indoors or into a closed vehicle as soon as thunder is heard, and wait about 30 minutes after the last rumble before going out again. Do not shelter under trees, and keep away from electric poles, wires, metal fences and water bodies such as ponds and canals.

If caught in the open, crouch low with your feet together and head tucked in rather than lying flat. Indoors, unplug electrical appliances and avoid bathing or using corded phones while the storm lasts. Farmers are advised to pause field work during thunderstorms. The IMD’s Damini app shows lightning activity nearby.

What next

The current forecast lists no heavy-rain warning after October 21, though isolated thunderstorms and gusty winds may continue until October 23. The Amaravati centre revises its warnings daily, so anyone planning outdoor events should check the latest bulletin.

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